Why are markets so fragile right now? In our latest Economic Outlook, Urs Droese and Jess Roberson look at what has moved in the economy and where markets may head through the summer and into the US midterms.

They discuss why the US dollar's recent strength may be a period of normalisation within a longer-term downward trend, the influence of oil and gold, and how Switzerland's low inflation and low unemployment shape the Swiss National Bank's position. The conversation then turns to Europe's efforts to restart growth, the new communication approach at the Federal Reserve under Chair Warsh, and why market fragility, stretched AI-sector valuations, and a wave of high-profile IPOs call for discipline and careful risk management.

Their shared message is a familiar one: when markets are fragile and emotions run high, a clear long-term strategy and disciplined risk management matter far more than chasing momentum.