Managing Partner Urs Vrijhof-Droese was recently interviewed for a "Miller, on the Money" article to discuss economies from around the world and their economic environment, as well as Switzerland's sustainable approach to successfully navigating the volatility of the geopolitical landscape for the last five centuries and how it has led to a successful position for its economy, currency, population, and those that use its private banking sector.
Switzerland's triumphant quarter-final in the European soccer championship contrasts sharply with global turmoil in the first half of the year. Persistent wars in Ukraine and Gaza, stock market highs, and a resurgent US dollar mark a landscape of economic and political upheaval. The rise of conservative parties in Europe, spurred by elections, signals potential long-term shifts, while Japan's NIKKEI 225 outperforms amid a weakening yen. Financial markets reflect a troubling divergence, with large companies thriving as smaller ones falter, and high debt levels in Europe and the US stoke investor anxiety. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies surge with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and precious metals experience volatility, setting the stage for a complex and uncertain remainder of the year.
After a marvelous first quarter, markets started to stutter. Investors are desperately looking for good news that support the lofty valuations. Because lower interest rates currently do not work, at least not in the U.S., we see Europe and the U.S. drifting apart. They find themselves in different stages of their business cycle. While the U.S. has been celebrated for its strong economy, Europe has moved ahead and is at the end of a recession, ready to steer its ship into growth territory again.
Amidst tax season, investors are urged to reassess their financial strategies, particularly their exposure to foreign markets. Meanwhile, the world grapples with the aftermath of a near financial crisis as central banks navigate uncertain economic terrain. Against this backdrop, a Swiss interest rate cut presents a unique opportunity for currency diversification. With forecasts pointing towards potential shifts in global interest rates, savvy investors are advised to consider strategic moves in bonds and precious metals, as gold emerges as a silent but resilient asset amidst market turbulence.
Explore the intricate dance between global elections, economic dynamics, and investment strategies that shape today's financial landscape. From the anticipation of elections worldwide to the implementation of global minimum tax rates, we dissect key trends driving markets forward. Gain valuable perspectives on how indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to rally, fueled by tech giants and economic optimism. However, amidst the celebration, we caution against complacency, highlighting potential risks such as China's deflationary environment and challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Delve into the inflationary pressures influencing fixed-income investments and the shifting fortunes of precious metals like gold.
We delve into the intricacies of financial market investing, emphasizing the balance between risk and reward. While diversification is highlighted for mitigating risks, the piece recognizes the persistence of systemic risk. We discuss the impact of systemic risk on investors, introducing the concept of a risk premium. It stresses the need for full diversification across assets, sectors, geographies, and currencies to navigate systemic risk and build resilient portfolios.
The comparison of GDP between BRICS and the G7 underscores the rising economic influence of BRICS, now representing over $30 trillion or about 29% of the global GDP. Although BRICS falls short of the G7's 43% global GDP share, the addition of new members and the robust growth rates of major BRICS nations, particularly India, suggest a narrowing gap in the future. Let's dive into what this development means for the US Dollar.
In the wake of global conflict and unexpected theaters of war, the world's economic stage defies expectations. As Europe and the Middle East become battlegrounds, the anticipated recession fails to materialize, leaving experts confounded amidst a prolonged pre-recession era. Despite localized economic downturns, the United States, in an unexpected turn, sidesteps a significant slump. Yet, uncertainty shrouds the horizon - whispers of a potential soft landing clash with the looming specter of a recession. Even seasoned economists struggle to navigate this unprecedented terrain, grappling with the unparalleled combination of COVID upheavals, monumental fiscal stimuli, and the mounting debt. The cost of such vast spending hangs ominously, leaving the world wondering who will bear the burden and when the reckoning will arrive.
Ever wondered about "the Fed" and its real significance in your life? Step into the world of the Federal Reserve System, where decisions made behind closed doors can directly affect your finances. From interest rates to economic stability, explore how this powerhouse institution shapes your everyday financial landscape. Plus, meet its Swiss counterpart and discover the intriguing differences in their approaches to maintaining stability in their respective economies.
Amidst global economic shifts and geopolitical tensions, the investment landscape remains turbulent. Recent events, including geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, indicate a prolonged period of instability challenging the prospects of a swift return to normalcy. As economic indicators hint at a slowdown, investors grapple with decisions amid rising interest rates and employment shifts among major corporations. The volatility has led to cautious investor sentiments, evident in low market volumes and heightened reactions to companies falling short of expectations. Notably, recent developments, such as Moody's revision of the US credit outlook, signal potential disruptions ahead. The narrative surrounding the economy's trajectory remains uncertain, prompting a call for a broader, long-term perspective in making prudent investment choices.
In recent times, central banks in various jurisdictions have adopted a cautious approach by refraining from further increasing interest rates. However, they have been vocal about their intention to closely monitor the consequences of the steps taken thus far. Despite this pause in rate hikes, equity markets have started to experience turbulence, reflecting an adjustment to the prevailing economic realities. Our assessment suggests that economies are currently facing significant challenges.
In this webinar, we will explore how Americans can position their investment portfolio in a recession and the opportunities presented to them outside of the U.S. markets and USD. We will give an in-depth view into how the Swiss banking system is set up, how it caters to clients, and how Americans can use it to build an internationally diversified portfolio away from the risk-ridden U.S. economy.
Managing Partner Urs Vrijhof-Droese was recently interviewed for a "Miller, on the Money" article to discuss the Fitch downgrading the US credit rating, the devaluation of the USD, and an outside prespective on what direction the U.S. economy is going. "From an outside perspective, it is surprising that such influential and educated people do not recognize (or admit) that the U.S. financial household is in trouble.” - Urs Vrijhof-Droese.
The question is what to expect from the rest of the year. Is the halt in equity prices the start of a more volatile environment leading back to price levels seen last October? We believe so. The reason is that corporate profits will sink further. That leads to lower valuations, meaning lower stock prices. Financing costs are still on the rise. With increased interest rates, sticky core inflation, decreasing corporate profits, and weak consumer confidence, chances are that banks will become even more restrictive in giving out loans. This is not only an issue in the U.S. and Europe. Last week it was announced that Chinese banks’ lending plummeted to Rmb 345.9bn (USD 47.8bn) instead of the expected Rmb 800 bn. This is the lowest figure since 2009, even though the Chinese central bank lowered interest rates in June to boost consumer spending.
In this podcast episode, the WHVP team sits down with Dr. Beat Habegger of Habegger Strategy to discuss geopolitical risks in the current climate. In addition, Dr. Habegger will answer questions pertaining to investors regarding geopolitical risks and how he sees the trends of the world moving. We hope you enjoy it!
While this year indices look great, the economies do not. Investors are falling back into old habits, becoming too enthusiastic about positive signs such as decreasing inflation and ignoring threats such as the looming recession. As many experts, central bankers, and not at least the Bank of International Settlements are stressing, the last bit of the fight against inflation is the most challenging part. Therefore, everyone who thinks that inflation will continue to fall at the same pace as it did since the end of last year is either not showing a great understanding of how economies and monetary policy work or is just naïve. As shown in our previous publication, core inflation is moving very little at a very high level.
Inflation is increasing prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. Banks and governments make inflation sound complicated as it serves their interest. It’s a hidden tax. Government-created inflation weakens the value of the currency, our money buys less. As evidenced by the recent debt ceiling farce, politicians have no interest in fiscal sanity or balancing the budget. While many predict the demise of the dollar, and much of the world is assisting in the erosion of the USD as the world currency, there are other factors. Urs Vrijhof-Droese is the Managing Partner of WHVP, international asset managers. Urs, an expert in international banking is based in Zurich. I’m a WHVP client. His recent article, The Swiss View – Cash is King got my attention.
On this podcast episode, the WHVP team sits down to talk about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the initiative being presented to the Swiss government to ensure that cash stays a part of the Swiss economy forever. In addition, the team will briefly discuss the current debt limit standoff taking place in the U.S. government. We hope you enjoy it!
Expecting a slowdown in economic growth will most likely lead to a reduction in corporate gains. So far, companies were able to pass on price increases in raw materials to their clients. Additionally, managers try to keep their profit margins by letting off employees and transform their production to more efficiency. Not everyone will be successful in this environment and will be able to keep the profit margin on a high level. However, there will be firms that find ways to become more price efficient or increase their product or service’s quality to a level which increases the consumers willingness to pay higher prices. Long story short, “Cash is King!”. Accordingly, it is crucial to look out for companies that generate a cash flow that enables them to run their business, invest for the future, and if the time is ripe to acquire one or the other company to either grow their market share or use synergies.
The dominance of the USD in the global economy gives the USA a huge amount of power should another country go against the will of the U.S. or attack an ally of the country. Because of this, whether good or bad, it has caused some countries to view the dominance of the U.S. dollar as a threat to their sovereignty and independence. In this blog, we will look at some of the international movements away from the USD and how they may affect the dollar's value in the long term. Finally, it will conclude with what Americans can do to begin protecting their wealth's value in the face of a depreciating dollar.